Premier League: who will improve in the second part of the season? Part 2.

In the Part 1I used the shots per goal conceded statistics to figure out which teams may have been (un)lucky in the first 16 games of the season and are expected to improve the defensive record in the remaining games of the season. In this article I will do the same for the offensive side of the game – are there teams that score fewer goals than they should simply because they have been unfortunate?

The similar statistics will be used: shots on goal per goal scored. Comparing to shots per goals conceded, this statistics is a bit trickier and should be treated more carefully. While league average is more or less constant and is around 10 every season, there appears to be a clear trend in how many shots different teams need to score a goal:

Again deviations not smaller than +/- 1,5 are assumed to be normal fluctuation, while bigger ones attract attention. 

Noticed something? Correct: all three green-zone teams – ones that require less shots to score a goal – were in the top-four both in the final standings and by the wage bill. Surprising? Hardly – the best teams acquire top attacking talent, and being a top attacking talent by definition means scoring more goals from less attempts.

From the table above it is pretty clear why exactly Manchester United were paying almost half a million pounds a week to Rooney and van Persie: an average team would have scored 56 goals from 559 shots on goal they took. Manchester United scored 86 (30 more). They might have had better shooting chances on average, they might have been a little bit lucky after all, but even if so, it is clear that sometimes Manchester United did not need to play well as a team to win the games. Pundits call it “being clinical”, I reckon.

Surprisingly, Manchester City were scoring from every 10^th shot – precisely the league average – despite having Aguero, Tevez and Dzeko. Poor luck? Maybe, but then it should have reversed in the next season. Had it? Let us look at the season 2013/14:

Oh yes, it had reversed for Manchester City: in 2013/14 they were scoring from each 6,6 attempts, as opposed to a goal from each 10 attempts in 2012/13. Interestingly, they were not shooting more often – it is just scoring more frequently that allowed them to increase the goal tally and eventually to win the league. 

You can observe that Manchester United were not shooting way less than year before – it is just that their were not scoring at crazy shots/goal rate. Was it Moyes’ fault, Rooney and van Persie being one year older or simply reversion to the mean – we will never know.

It is also easy to notice that Chelsea were shooting more often than Manchester City and Liverpool – it is just not having Sergio Aguero or Luis Suarez that did not let them come even close in terms of goals scored. In fact, out of the 5 teams with the highest wage bills, Chelsea was the only one not to be in the green zone. Surely, it must have reversed with acquisitions of Fabregas (better chances) and Diego Costa (better conversion). Has it?

Yes, the acquisitions of Fabregas and, especially, Diego Costa improved Chelsea’s goal scoring record. They shoot less often than in the last season, but are on pace to score more goals (90 against 71). 

Just like in the previous article, I raise the bar for normal fluctuation to +/- 2 due to the smaller sample size. Just like in the previous article, here are my predictions for the second part of the season.

1) Liverpool are unlucky and will score more frequently.

There is no question about that. Liverpool are scoring from every 12,4 attempts, 2,5 below league average. You may not like combination of Balotelli, Lambert and Borini, but they are surely not the fourth-worst combination of strikers in the league. Even if Sturridge does not come back (and he does) this season, Liverpool will definitely start scoring more. And given that they will concede less, too, it might be just to early to say they will not fight for the top-4 spot.

2) Aston Villa are unlucky and will score more frequently.

Seems to be an obvious one, too. Tremendously, Aston Villa are scoring a goal from each 15,5 attempts, and it is definitely not because they shoot too much from hopeless positions – in fact, only Hull takes less shots per game than Aston Villa. Their attacking line does not seem to be that hopeless either.

3) West Ham are lucky and will score less frequently.

This prediction may be a trivial, but yes, West Ham will not play that well for the full season. They may not be in the green zone, but not only they are scoring from every 8,5 shots, which is high by their standards, but they also take a lot if shots (14,4 – good enough for the 5^th in the league). Actually I expect them to both shoot less often and score less frequently.

I also feel that Everton will need more shots to score a goal, but I do not think they will score less (which is not the same). They shoot less often than they did in previous seasons, so the increase in total of number of shots together with increase in shots needed for a goal will result in approximately the same number of goals.