After a comfortable win over Derby County
in the League Cup quarterfinal, Jose Mourihno and Cesc Fabregas had a little
disagreement over their team’s chances to win nothing less than quadruple this
season. The Spaniard, probably encouraged by lack of resistance from
Championship opposition, said that Chelsea “have all what it takes”, while the
manager insisted that “it is impossible”.
What is the true probability of Chelsea winning
a quadruple or any other combination of trophies, as of December 17th,
2014? To derive probabilities, I used bookies’ coefficients (if someone has
better estimations, which is confirmed by a long record of beating bookies,
please let me know: not only will I use it for this and similar post, but I
also will invest money in your strategy).
