Premier League: who will improve in the second part of the season? Part 2.

In the Part 1I used the shots per goal conceded statistics to figure out which teams may have been (un)lucky in the first 16 games of the season and are expected to improve the defensive record in the remaining games of the season. In this article I will do the same for the offensive side of the game – are there teams that score fewer goals than they should simply because they have been unfortunate?

Chelsea winning the quadruple is as likely as Liverpool relegating to Championship

After a comfortable win over Derby County in the League Cup quarterfinal, Jose Mourihno and Cesc Fabregas had a little disagreement over their team’s chances to win nothing less than quadruple this season. The Spaniard, probably encouraged by lack of resistance from Championship opposition, said that Chelsea “have all what it takes”, while the manager insisted that “it is impossible”.

What is the true probability of Chelsea winning a quadruple or any other combination of trophies, as of December 17^th, 2014? To derive probabilities, I used bookies’ coefficients (if someone has better estimations, which is confirmed by a long record of beating bookies, please let me know: not only will I use it for this and similar post, but I also will invest money in your strategy).